Artikli pealkiri: Fiscal Shocks and Public Debt Dynamics in the European Union. New Evidence using Forecast-Error Identification

Autorid: 
Karsten Staehr - TalTech, Department of Economics and Finance 
Olegs Tkacevs - Bank of Latvia
Ann Merit Toiger - Bank of Estonia

Lühikokkuvõte:

This paper studies the effects of fiscal shocks on the dynamics of public debt. Data are annual and cover all European Union members from 2001 to 2024. The fiscal shocks are identified using orthogonalised forecast errors computed from European Commission forecasts,
and the impulse responses are generated using local projections. Primary balance shocks lower government debt measured in per cent of GDP, but the effect is gradual and initially modest. Revenue shocks have gradual and statistically insignificant effects,
while primary expenditure shocks have fast, relatively large and statistically significant effects. The two types of shock have quite similar macroeconomic effects; the effects on the public debt stock are different because the fiscal reactions are different
depending on whether revenue or spending measures are used. Analyses using various subcomponents reveal that indirect taxes have comparatively strong effects on public debt; public consumption and public investment measures have quite similar effects.

Tallinna Tehnikaülikooli majandusanalüüsi ja rahanduse instituudi avatud teadusseminarid toimuvad tavaliselt kuu teisel ja neljandal kolmapäeval nii kohapealse kui ka veebis osalemisvõimalusega, kui ei ole teatatud teisiti. Ettekanne kestab u 45 minutit, millele järgneb veerand tundi arutelu. Seminar toimub inglise keeles. Ettekande aluseks olev artikkel on üldjuhul kättesaadav seminaril kohapeal. Küsimuste korral võib pöörduda seminaride koordinaatori Karsten Staehri [email protected] poole.