Artikli pealkiri: Valuing Corporate Emissions Performance Under Net-Zero Targets: A Real Options Approach
Autor: Prof. Ranadeva Jayasekera (Trinity College, University of Dublin; Judge Business School, University of Cambridge)

Lühikokkuvõte:

The Paris Agreement has prompted firms to commit to net-zero emissions targets, yet financial and regulatory decision-makers lack reliable tools for assessing whether firms are credibly on track. Most existing alignment metrics rely on static, point-in-time comparisons and provide limited insight into the dynamics of transition performance. We develop a trajectory-aware valuation framework grounded in real options theory that links firm-level emissions paths to economically interpretable measures of transition credibility. Annual Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions serve as the underlying variable, while firm-specific Paris-aligned pathways define time-varying benchmarks. A baseline European option quantifies the surplus associated with remaining below a prescribed emissions path and applying the framework to annual emissions data for more than 600 global firms from 2015 to 2025, we show that trajectory-aware valuations reveal systematic differences that static alignment metrics obscure. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity across sectors and regions and demonstrate how dynamic, trajectory-based metrics can support the evaluation of corporate progress toward net-zero commitments. This framework contributes to literature by providing a transparent, risk-adjusted indicator that distinguishes between durable structural decarbonization and volatile or transient alignment, thereby mitigating greenwashing risks and supporting more efficient capital allocation in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Tallinna Tehnikaülikooli majandusanalüüsi ja rahanduse instituudi avatud teadusseminarid toimuvad tavaliselt kuu teisel ja neljandal kolmapäeval nii kohapealse kui ka veebis osalemisvõimalusega, kui ei ole teatatud teisiti. Ettekanne kestab u 45 minutit, millele järgneb veerand tundi arutelu. Seminar toimub inglise keeles. Ettekande aluseks olev artikkel on üldjuhul kättesaadav seminaril kohapeal. Küsimuste korral võib pöörduda seminari koordinaatori Karsten Staehri [email protected] poole.