Artikli pealkiri: The Effects of Fiscal and Macroeconomic Shocks on Public Debt Trajectories in the Euro Area
Autorid: 
Olegs Tkacevs - Läti Pank
Karsten Staehr - majandusanalüüsi ja rahanduse instituut, TalTech; Eesti Pank

Lühikokkuvõte:

This paper examines the impact of fiscal and macroeconomic shocks on public debt trajectories in the euro area. Various shocks are identified using country-specific SVAR models, and the shocks are then used in local projections on panel data to generate impulse response functions. The analysis indicates that a positive GDP shock leads to persistent reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio; a positive GDP deflator shock reduces the debt ratio but the effect is short-lived; and a positive interest rate shock produces a substantial and lasting increase in the debt ratio. A positive primary balance shock, reflecting discretionary fiscal consolidation, lowers the debt ratio considerably, but it does so with a lag of around one year, after which the effect persists. The negative effect on the debt ratio is however considerably more pronounced during economic booms than during slumps. 

Tallinna Tehnikaülikooli Majandusanalüüsi ja rahanduse instituudi avatud teadusseminarid toimuvad tavaliselt kuu teisel ja neljandal kolmapäeval nii kohapealse kui online osalemisvõimalusega, kui ei ole teatatud teisiti. Ettekanne kestab u 45 minutit, millele järgneb veerand tundi arutelu. Seminar toimub inglise keeles. Ettekande aluseks olev artikkel on üldjuhul kättesaadav seminaril kohapeal. Küsimuste korral võib pöörduda seminaride koordinaatori Karsten Staehri poole: karsten.staehr@taltech.ee.