Human in the Age of Technological Upheavals

Session Chairs: Tiina Randma-Liiv, Kati Orru

Abstract:

The goal of this session is to bring together researchers from various universities who specialise in crisis studies and crisis management practitioners. The session will examine crises from two perspectives. First, threats such as extreme weather events associated with climate change, cybersecurity issues, pandemics, or armed conflicts do not recognise national borders, social classes, or individuals' physical or mental capabilities. Commonly, the understanding of people's coping is seen as an individual and unchanging phenomenon over time (e.g., the assumption that people living with disabilities or in poverty cope worse in crises). The panel will explore the mechanisms of social vulnerability and coping in crises, considering not only individual factors but also the social context and the dynamic impact of the unfolding event. Key questions regarding vulnerability and coping include how individuals, communities, and institutions can foresee, prepare for, respond to, or recover from threats.
Second, we will discuss how to better manage crises and the broader turbulent environment. We will examine crisis prevention and recognition, operational management of crises, post-crisis analysis, and learning from crises at both the micro and macro levels. Presentations addressing technological solutions for preventing crises and addressing challenges arising from crises are also welcome. Crisis research also raises methodological challenges related to data accessibility and the representation of human groups and social contexts in research.

Eva Peeters -  “Crisis-induced lesson-drawing processes shaped the European Union’s formulation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility”

Abstract: 

This study examines whether crisis-induced lesson-drawing processes shaped the European Union’s formulation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the role of policy and political entrepreneurs and the dynamic between inter and intra policy learning. Anchored in policy learning theory and crisis governance, this research applies the concepts of single and double loop learning to analyse how crisis experiences created a shift in the EU’s crisis response paradigm. This shift involved moving from intergovernmental coordination to limited supranational delegation, as exemplified by the RRF (Ladi & Tsarouhas, 2020; Capati, 2024; Capati, 2023; Fabrini & Capati, 2023). The findings contribute to EU crisis governance as well as (crisis) policy learning literature by highlighting if crisis experiences facilitate ideational shifts. Political entrepreneurs, motivated to avoid the Eurozone crisis’s mistakes, played a critical role in shaping the RRF’s development, leading to a departure from traditional intergovernmental coordination towards more supranational delegation. The RRF thus exemplifies a process in which initial single loop responses during the pandemic progressed into double loop learning, informed by crisis induced lessons from the Eurozone crisis. By harnessing the necessary political will, these entrepreneurs, in turn enabled policy entrepreneurs to propose and implement innovative solutions. This shift highlights how crises may act as a catalyst for ideational collapse, consolidation and change, ensuring greater robustness in the EU. The RRF’s development thus illustrates the EU’s capacity to learn from past crises and move toward a more robust crisis governance framework.
 

Session Chairs: Kairi Kasearu, Mare Ainsaar, Anu Toots, Eleri Lillemäe, Tiia-Triin Truusa

Abstract:

The last decade has brought about numerous crises and new social, ecological, and economic challenges. The state and society as a whole play a major role in responding to these changes, whether it be the growing geopolitical security risks, a decrease in the sense of safety, rising inequality, or the pressure of technology on everyday life. These are complex risks that accumulate, and due to limited resources, there is increased pressure to set priorities, which raises the question of whose welfare and sense of security are most important. Linking priorities to national security can be understood as "securitisation." In such a situation, the mobilisation of various groups may occur. On the one hand, this can strengthen the resilience of society, but on the other hand, it may also open opportunities for destabilising society.
The goal of the session is to bring together scholars from various disciplines whose research analyses the sources and forms of the sense of security, different aspects of societal security, ranging from national defense to social cohesion and welfare.
The session invites presentations that analyse:
Different manifestations of securitisation in society (e.g., population participation in national defense, the impact of technological developments on securitisation, and broader military-civil relations);
The functioning and development of social protection and social policy, how it has changed people's lives, how policies change, and how people themselves influence social policy and social protection standards;
The opportunities and risks of (social) media in ensuring security and the functioning of social protection;
Cultural diversity in this field (participation of different cultural groups, attitudes, and influence).

Sigrid Aas - “From Policy to Practice: Gender Balance and Perspectives in Military Organizations"

Abstrakt: From Policy to Practice: Gender Balance and Perspectives in Military Organizations. This article explores the implementation of gender perspectives and the promotion of gender balance in various military systems. The research highlights both the opportunities and challenges associated with gender inclusion, offering insights into the transformation of military structures and the evolving role of gender in shaping modern armed forces. The findings contribute to the broader discourse on military sociology and organizational change, emphasizing the importance of gender-responsive policies in contemporary defense institutions.

Session Chairs: Mare Ainsaar, Anu Toots

Abstract:

The last decade has brought us several crises and new social, ecological, and economic challenges. The state and society as a whole play a significant role in responding to the changes these crises have caused, whether it is the decrease in the sense of security, the rise of inequality, or the pressure of technology on everyday life. 
This session invites analyses of how social policy is shaped in the era of multiple crises and technological transformation, how it has changed people's lives, or how people themselves are changing social policy. Presentations are preferred that seek answers to the following dilemmas and trends:
- Regulations of platform work and the impact of platform work on businesses and workers;
- The situation and trends of remote work, including the social protection of digital nomads;
- The digitalisation/robotisation of social services from the perspectives of public administration, social workers, and citizens – the dilemmas of efficiency and equal access;
- The opportunities and risks of social media in the implementation of social policy;
- Cultural diversity and social policy standards from the viewpoint of policymakers or street-level bureaucrats.
 

Mare Ainsaar - “Sustainability of parental leave systems and determinants of well-being of men and women at home with children”

Abstract:  Introduction The aim of the chapter is to analyse the relationship between subjective personal well-being and parental leave in European countries. Since the practice and experience of men and women can be different when using parental leave, we analyse men and women separately. Previous studies suggest that men may be more influenced by work and economic circumstances. The satisfaction with life can be seen as an important indicator of quality of life. Several investigations seem to support argument that children are source of positive life satisfaction (Vignoli, Pirani, & Salvini, 2014; Ainsaar & Rootalu, 2015). At the same time, raising children requires additional resources (Becker, 1991), and children thus place an additional burden on their parents, including indirect costs like time out of labour market and career stop. The European Social Survey (ESS, 2021) 2010-2018 data is used for the analysis of life satisfaction of parents on leave. The database includes 27 countries. The ESS is an international comparative survey and part of the European scientific infrastructure. ESS data follow the highest quality standards for international comparisons. Sample for analyses are people at age 26-60 years with at least one child at home. We compare parents at home with other people in their age group.

Session Chairs: Tiina Randma-Liiv, Kati Orru

Abstract:

The goal of this session is to bring together researchers from various universities who specialise in crisis studies and crisis management practitioners. The session will examine crises from two perspectives. First, threats such as extreme weather events associated with climate change, cybersecurity issues, pandemics, or armed conflicts do not recognise national borders, social classes, or individuals' physical or mental capabilities. Commonly, the understanding of people's coping is seen as an individual and unchanging phenomenon over time (e.g., the assumption that people living with disabilities or in poverty cope worse in crises). The panel will explore the mechanisms of social vulnerability and coping in crises, considering not only individual factors but also the social context and the dynamic impact of the unfolding event. Key questions regarding vulnerability and coping include how individuals, communities, and institutions can foresee, prepare for, respond to, or recover from threats.
Second, we will discuss how to better manage crises and the broader turbulent environment. We will examine crisis prevention and recognition, operational management of crises, post-crisis analysis, and learning from crises at both the micro and macro levels. Presentations addressing technological solutions for preventing crises and addressing challenges arising from crises are also welcome. Crisis research also raises methodological challenges related to data accessibility and the representation of human groups and social contexts in research.
 

Ayberk Soner Kalayci - “Volunteering is vital for public services and resilience – individual motivation and perspective”

Abstract: Volunteering is vital for public services and resilience, especially during disasters when formal systems are overwhelmed (Roth & Prior, 2019; Torfing et al., 2019). Surges in informal volunteering often provide much-needed resources (Ansell et al., 2022), yet public officials struggle to predict and manage these spontaneous efforts (Whittaker et al., 2015). To address this, our study proposes an explanatory model focusing on four factors that motivate volunteering during crises: Perceived Urgency, Perceived Connectedness, Perceived Congruence, and Perceived Self-Efficacy.  We examine how each factor shapes an individual’s willingness to volunteer, hypothesizing that each exerts an independent effect. Perceived Urgency relates to the immediate need for assistance, amplified by inadequate system responses. Perceived Connectedness arises from empathy and shared social or emotional ties. Perceived Congruence captures how personal values and trust in relief efforts align with volunteering. Finally, Perceived Self-Efficacy reflects individuals’ belief in their capacity to contribute effectively.  We are testing these hypotheses via a 5×1 between-subjects survey experiment, using one control group and four treatment groups, each focusing on a single factor. Preliminary pilot analyses indicate significant effects for all four factors. Our approach provides valuable insights for policymakers, guiding effective volunteer mobilization strategies in disaster scenarios and improved outcomes.

Tairi Rõõm, Merike Kukk, Jaanika Meriküll, Gerda Kirpson

Abstrakt: The recent surge in consumer prices has brought into the spotlight both inflation and the role of monetary policy in taming price increases. This is particularly relevant for Estonia, where cumulative price growth in recent years, like in other Baltic states, has exceeded that of the broader euro area. The impact of monetary policy is also felt more strongly in this region due to the prevalence of floating interest rate loans. This session will explore how inflation and monetary policy affect households and individuals, while also examining wealth inequality and the role of monetary policy in shaping disparities in income and wealth.
The first presentation will delve into how personal inflation exposure influences consumption and investment patterns, shedding light on backward-looking expectations and their role in inflation persistence. The second presentation will examine the distributional effects of monetary policy, particularly its disproportionate impact on income inequality during high-inflation periods and the cascading effects on aggregate consumption. The third presentation will focus on the shift in consumer inflation expectations after the recent inflation spike, emphasizing the interplay between perceived, realised, and expected inflation in shaping economic behaviour. Lastly, the fourth presentation will unpack wealth inequality, highlighting discrepancies between household- and individual-level measures and the implications of within-household dynamics. Together, these studies provide a nuanced understanding of economic behaviour in an era of heightened volatility and inequality.
The session includes the following presentations:

1. Merike Kukk, Jan Toczynski, Christoph Basten, „Beyond the headline: How personal exposure to inflation shapes the financial choices of households“
2. Jaanika Meriküll, Matthias Rottner, „Monetary policy and earnings inequality: Inflation dependencies“
3. Gerda Kirpson „The dynamics of consumer inflation expectations before and after the 2022 inflation spike: The role of perceived and realised inflation“
4. Jaanika Meriküll, Tairi Rõõm „Unravelling the overlooked dimension: Wealth inequality at the household vs individual level“

Merike Kukk - „Beyond the headline: How personal exposure to inflation shapes the financial choices of households“ 

Abstract: Using individual level panel data from a period of volatile inflation in Estonia in 2005-11 and interactive fixed effect estimation, we find individual consumption to respond to personal inflation beyond the headline rate. Households are exposed to different inflation due to different consumption baskets. For each percentage point of higher personal inflation exposure, they increase consumption by more than 1%, and also increase stock market investments. These responses are consistent with backward-looking inflation expectations. They are financed with savings or borrowing, except when the household is liquidity-constrained or over-indebted. Extra demand when inflation is already high can make inflation persistent and dependent on its current distribution.

Jaanika Meriküll - „Monetary policy and earnings inequality: Inflation dependencies“ 

Abstract: This paper studies the distributional effects of monetary policy and its dependencay on the inflation environment. We document a novel inflation dependency for the earnings heterogeneity channel of monetary policy using high-frequency, administrative individual-level tax data from eurozone member Estonia. We find that monetary policy shocks substantially influence labour income inequality during high-inflation periods, while the impact is markedly reduced in a low-inflation environment. Specifically, monetary policy disproportionately affects low-income individuals when inflation is elevated. Extending our dataset with the granular marginal propensity to consume estimates, we show that the earnings heterogeneity channel amplifies the aggregate consumption response, contributing approximately 5%.

Gerda Kirpson - „The dynamics of consumer inflation expectations before and after the 2022 inflation spike: The role of perceived and realised inflation“

Abstract: This paper examines how the formation of consumer inflation expectations in the euro area changed following the inflation spike in 2022, focusing on the relationship between expected, perceived and realised inflation. The study uses individual-level panel data from the European Central Bank’s Consumer Expectation Survey and employs a mixed-method approach to estimate fixed and random effects across two sub-periods. It finds that before 2022, inflation perceptions influenced expectations strongly, while realised inflation had no impact, but from 2022 onwards, the influence of perceptions on expectations was reduced, and realised inflation mattered. The findings, which are robust across different specifications and country-level analyses, align with the rational inattention theory, suggesting that attention to inflation information shifts with economic conditions.

Tairi Rõõm, Jaanika Meriküll - „Unravelling the overlooked dimension: Wealth inequality at the household vs individual level“

Abstract: In recent decades, wealth inequality has been on the rise in many developed economies, prompting researchers to investigate its underlying causes. Our paper contributes to this field of research by estimating and comparing wealth inequality at both the household and individual levels. We assess the differences in wealth inequality at these two levels of disaggregation and derive the contributions of within-household and between-household inequality to overall individual-level inequality. Additionally, we examine how various wealth components and changes in household structure impact wealth inequality, comparing these effects across the two levels of measurement. Our findings indicate that wealth inequality is more pronounced at the individual level compared to the household level, indicating an uneven distribution of wealth within households. The rise in housing prices has contributed to a more equitable distribution of wealth, whereas increase in liabilities has widened wealth inequality.  

Session Chairs: Veiko Lember, Peeter Vihma, Tiit Tammaru

Abstract:

We invite papers and presentations for the panel "Managing the Renovation Wave and Socioeconomic Impacts" at the Estonian Social Scientists' Annual Conference 2025, under the theme "Humans in the Age of Technological Disruptions." This panel focuses on governance challenges and opportunities related to the European Union's ambitious plan to create a sustainable, carbon-neutral energy system by 2050 and to make existing residential and industrial buildings more energy-efficient. 
The EU's 2020 strategy "The European Renovation Wave – Making our Buildings Greener, Creating Jobs, Improving Lives" aims to double the renovation rate of buildings by the end of this decade, to at least 2% annually. Since approximately 75% of existing buildings across Europe are not energy-efficient, building renovation has become an urgent priority, especially in colder regions where energy demand is higher. Such a change requires rapid and systemic transformations not only in building and energy-related technologies but also in the decisions and behaviors of individuals, communities, businesses, and the state. This involves destabilising existing socio-technical regimes related to buildings and energy and broadly implementing new solutions.
This panel explores the socioeconomic processes associated with the renovation wave and its governance models and strategies. What have been the impacts and lessons learned from the implementation of the renovation wave so far? How can governments, public institutions, and private sector participants cooperate to accelerate the pace of renovation? What political frameworks and institutional arrangements can enable this transformation? How can we avoid increasing social inequality? How can technological changes that would accelerate renovation be supported? How can citizens' participation and consent be ensured?
Relevant Topics:
We welcome papers addressing, but not limited to, the following questions:
- How has the renovation wave unfolded in Estonia, Europe, and beyond?
- How is the renovation wave, including mass renovation and modernisation, framed in different national and regional contexts?
- What governance and management models are used to facilitate mass renovation, and how do they differ in different societal contexts?
- What renovation wave policies are needed to shape markets and influence technological innovation?
- What approaches enable residents' involvement in the renovation wave?
- What lessons can be learned from the implementation of the renovation wave in Estonia, Europe, and elsewhere?
- What are the social and economic impacts of the renovation wave?
We welcome both theoretical and empirical contributions from various fields, such as political science, public administration, human geography, urban studies, economics, anthropology, environmental management, and more. We also invite papers that link social sciences with fields such as engineering, natural sciences, and other disciplines. Articles can address renovation-related topics at different levels (local, national, European) and in various societal contexts. Presentations may focus on regions more broadly (e.g., the European Union) or explore specific countries and regions.

Kirils Gončarovs ja Anneli Kährik - “Who pays more? The assessment of housing and socio-economic differences in energy consumption in Tallinn”

Abstract:

The introduction of the EU ETS system in the residential building sector in times of energy crisis posits a risk of increased energy poverty. Monitoring energy poverty and the distributional impacts of energy consumption by the governing bodies is important for facilitating just energy policies and reducing inequalities. To evaluate the patterns of varied energy costs, the study compares different classification and regression algorithms with publicly available data to significantly increase the total number of buildings assessed in the study. The outputs of the machine learning algorithm are further used with the neighbourhood-level data on the occupational, ethnic, and demographic characteristics to evaluate the variability of energy costs for different population groups. The study revealed three statistically significant variations in energy costs: the middle occupational and elderly population experience lower annual energy costs on the city level, whereas the increase in the number of individuals with Estonian as their mother tongue is associated with higher energy costs on a building level. Overall, the inner city of Tallinn was identified with the highest energy costs.  The study results are important in considering suitable financial impact reduction measures to alleviate the risks of increased energy poverty.