Paper title: Modeling Semiconductor Export Restrictions and the US-China Trade Conflict
Michael Funke joint work with Adrian Wende (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna; Hamburg University)

Abstract:

The semiconductor industry stands at the center of the intensifying Sino-American trade conflict. Employing a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium modeling framework with imperfect competition and heterogeneous firms, we perform qualitative and quantitative analyses of protec-tionist semiconductor measures. The paper offers two innovations in assessing the macroeconomic impact of current trade restrictions in the semiconductor industry model. First, our model of the semiconductor industry takes into account semiconductor varieties at different technological levels with different substitutability. Second, we model trade restrictions using a novel approach to export bans on semiconductor varieties that is consistent with US policy. Our simulation results suggest that the trade restrictions imposed by the US and its allies consistently lead to a decline in Chinese GDP and welfare. The US also loses, but to a lesser extent. The effect of trade diversion favors the rest of the world. Our simulations further confirm that the US semiconductor industry is likely to be harmed by the restrictions, while China’s could be strengthened.

The public research seminars of the Department of Economics and Finance (DEF) at Tallinn University of Technology  usually take place on the second and fourth Wednesdays of the month in online format, unless announced otherwise. The seminar will last one hour, presentation will last approximately 45 minutes followed by 15 minutes of discussion. The seminars are held in English. The DEF seminar series is organised in collaboration with the project ’’Individual Behaviour and Economic  Performance: Methodological  Challenges and Institutional Context’’ (IBEP), which has received funding from the European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 952574. Questions about the seminar can be sent to the IBEP seminar coordinator Kadri Männasoo, kadri.mannasoo@taltech.ee .