Paper title: The Zelensky Moment: Arms, Investments and the Russian Invasion
L.J.R. (Bert) Scholtens joint work with Martijn Adriaan Boermans (De Nederlandsche Bank), Rients Galema (Utrecht University - School of Economics) ja Auke Plantinga (University of Groningen)

Abstract:

We analyze the determinants of European portfolio investments in the international arms industry. We explore a novel database from the ECB with portfolio holdings of investors from 26 countries in the European Union to investigate the role of geographical and political factors in relation to the prolonged conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. We utilize the former Soviet countries, countries that once were part of Yugoslavia, and signatories of the Warsaw Pact, military defense budgets, Google trend, and geographical proximity indicators to understand which factors shape investors’ investments in the arms industry. Using a differences-in-differences approach, we find that following the election of Mr. Zelensky and subsequent political tensions, investors in countries that once were under direct influence of the Soviet Union have substantially increased their holdings in arms stocks as compared to those in other European countries. We establish that especially retail investors show a pronounced response.

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