Tallinn University of Technology

You are welcome to the Department of Economics and Finance research seminar "The Zelensky Moment: Arms, Investments and the Russian Invasion".

The seminar will take place on the 21st of February at 16:00 - 17:00 in MS Teamsi platform (link).

Presenter: L.J.R. (Bert) Scholtens (University of Groningen)

Paper title: The Zelensky Moment: Arms, Investments and the Russian Invasion
L.J.R. (Bert) Scholtens joint work with Martijn Adriaan Boermans (De Nederlandsche Bank), Rients Galema (Utrecht University - School of Economics) ja Auke Plantinga (University of Groningen)


We analyze the determinants of European portfolio investments in the international arms industry. We explore a novel database from the ECB with portfolio holdings of investors from 26 countries in the European Union to investigate the role of geographical and political factors in relation to the prolonged conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. We utilize the former Soviet countries, countries that once were part of Yugoslavia, and signatories of the Warsaw Pact, military defense budgets, Google trend, and geographical proximity indicators to understand which factors shape investors’ investments in the arms industry. Using a differences-in-differences approach, we find that following the election of Mr. Zelensky and subsequent political tensions, investors in countries that once were under direct influence of the Soviet Union have substantially increased their holdings in arms stocks as compared to those in other European countries. We establish that especially retail investors show a pronounced response.

The public research seminars of the Department of Economics and Finance (DEF) at Tallinn University of Technology  usually take place on the second and fourth Wednesdays of the month in online format, unless announced otherwise. The seminar will last one hour, presentation will last approximately 45 minutes followed by 15 minutes of discussion. The seminars are held in English. Questions about the seminar can be sent to the seminar coordinator Natalia Levenko: natalia.levenko@taltech.ee.