In Estonian, the discussion surrounding the future is often framed in the singular, as if there is a single predetermined future. Johanna Vallistu, an alumnus of the School of Business and Governance, a member of the Government Office Public Sector Innovation Team, and an expert of strategic foresight, KNOWS that, according to the future foresight approach, at the current moment, we have an infinite number of possible futures. Consequently, Johanna has introduced a new term in Estonian language 'tulevikeseire,' which is in line with the international approach and acknowledges the existence of multiple futures. We are intrigued and so we asked Johanna to tell us more.
You hold a master's degree in technology governance and are pursuing a doctoral degree in public administration. Why did you decide to study in these fields?
When I was admitted to the technology governance master's programme at Ragnar Nurkse Department, I already had a bachelor's degree in economics and business administration from Stockholm School of Economics in Riga and a gap year experience from EcoVad, a sustainability start-up in Paris. At that time, most of my groupmates in Riga started their careers in the financial sector, but as I had developed a deeper interest in the development of economy, society, and technology and their mutual dynamics, I decided to continue with my studies. The first lectures delivered by Carlota Perez in the technology governance programme convinced me that it was the right choice, and the framework of socio-technical systems and transitions has served as a starting point for a better understanding of the world in the future.
I joined the doctoral programme five years after earning my master's degree when I already had extensive experience in the field of research, and the large-scale scenario project "Labor Market 2035" had just been completed at the Foresight Centre, a think tank at the Estonian parliament. I was interested in going deeper with my topics, and I already knew that Ragnar Nurkse's academic atmosphere and the people made it just the right place for me. I am very grateful that my supervisor Ringa Raudla recognized my interest, and soon I was back at the university as a doctoral student.
What do you think is the strength of this field in today's labour market?
There are too few programmes like the Nurkse one – it is interdisciplinary and helps us understand the world around us in all its complexities. I am glad to see that the graduates of our department are aware that there are no black-and-white and right and wrong solutions in social sciences - you need to be able to analyze, discuss, argue, and go deeper. If you look at the doctoral programme from the perspective of the Nurkse department, the valued researchers, internationality, good research projects, and relevant research topics on a global level give confidence that the doctoral degree will open challenges in the future in Estonia or the world, in the academy, in the public sector and the private sector.
Do you have any fun or educational memories from your university time?
I have been hardworking throughout my studies at TalTech and a mother for the past ten years; therefore, I do not have typical student memories. However, I will forever remember how much the COVID crisis changed the regular life arrangement. It taught me that the world is complex, and people's experiences can be diametrically different. While in 2020, most students were unhappy that they could not physically go to the university building, I could continue my doctoral studies without a break thanks to the crisis - in September of the same year, I had a baby, with whom I participated in online lectures and continued my ongoing research projects. We must consider that Estonian students are in very different situations regarding work and family life, so we should look at it from diverse perspectives. This is especially relevant in doctoral studies because any pause leaves its mark on the research and slows your momentum.
Where do you work today and what journey led you to your current position?
I have been engaged in strategic foresight in the public sector for nearly seven years - first at the Foresight Centre, conducting foresight projects on future topics important to society in the labour market, pensions, and data society, and this year at the Government Office Public Sector Innovation Team, testing approaches to practical foresight. However, my interest in the future grew so much that now I deal with the future independently in various networks - I assist the Ministry of Economy and Communications in preparing a vision for Estonian tourism until 2035 and design future foresight training together with the Design Centre and write a textbook on future studies with emeritus professor Erik Terk, I give talks about the future to those interested. At the university, I am a member of the public sector experimentation research group led by my supervisor, prof. Ringa Raudla; I teach seminars on public finance, and in cooperation with my co-supervisor prof. Veiko Lember, we are writing about the future of digital services, and some co-authoring is still in progress. Somehow, this journey has been easy for me - the work must be intellectually challenging and effective, i.e., someone besides me must be interested in the outcome. In this sense, it is nice to experience that the doctoral programme fits this picture very well.
What exciting challenges does your today's job offer?
It is a challenge to talk about the future excitingly and educationally to make future foresight seem useful. Although the discipline of Strategic Foresight and Future Studies has existed for more than 70 years in the developed world and is now excitingly large and multifaceted, in Estonia, literacy of the future is still low. On the one hand, future foresight methodologies have become more inclusive and deliberative – the future belongs to all of us. This is also logical because humanity must cope with several turns and crises - the green turn, the digital turn, and rapid societal changes. Therefore, considering different development trajectories and preparing for them now is an essential part of, for example, strategy creation, design thinking, and human-centered approaches. On the other hand, a good future foresight project is still knowledge-based and deep enough so that we also understand our prejudices and thought patterns regarding the future and can create suitable and practical alternatives. We expect simple answers to complex questions, but an efficient future foresight project should not provide them.
You are involved in such an exciting topic as future foresight. What exactly is it and, based on that, what could TalTech be like in 2035, for example?
In the simplest terms, strategic foresight is the ability to imagine different futures and prepare for them in the present moment. In Estonian, we talk about the future in the singular form, as if we had one predetermined future, although, based on the future foresight approach, we currently have an infinite number of possible futures - probable, plausible, preferable, less preferred, etc. Therefore, I have introduced the word future foresight, which is in line with the approach of the rest of the world and reflects the principle of multiple futures. We are used to following numerical forecasts, but we do not have data about the future. Therefore, it is more adequate to consider several possible and probable developments when making current decisions. To create new ideas, we can speculate about the future, e.g., think about the less likely but more pivotal futures. What would they bring, and how to prepare for them? Once we have reached the point where we understand the space of possible futures, it is time to ask, what kind of future do we want? A good vision can powerfully launch a community, a collective, or even a nation, but imagination and dreaming must be given permission, tools, and opportunity. The future of university still depends a lot on our current decisions, but there are yet trends that need to be discussed today - what do the shrinking and ageing population and the even smaller number of so-called traditional students mean for the university? What is the role of a fancy university campus in the world of virtual studies and universities? How to teach critical thinking when an artificial brain thinks and writes for us? For a long time, we have struggled with the question of academic succession - how do we imagine the role of a researcher and faculty in the future? For some reason, throughout history, the field of education has been less receptive to changes than others, and even after COVID, we saw that while many jobs and services remained independent of location, schools and universities returned to their previous model in many ways. However, I am sceptical of all people who predict the future for others. I encourage TalTech management, together with the faculty and students, to create probable futures and their vision to better orient themselves in this world of uncertain factors and to start setting a course now. However, I have a dream - that, like Finland and other countries, Estonia will soon have a master's programme in the future foresight. We could start with one course.