This year, the Albert Pullerits prize of a young statistician goes to Alice Mikk, majoring in economic analysis, who defended this spring her Master's thesis Firm-level predictors of labour tax evasion.
The aim of Mikk’s thesis was to analyse the relationship between the financial and non-financial indicators of various companies and the probability of evasion of labour taxes.
The choice of the topic is motivated by Mikk's personal interest in the shadow economy. Researching tax evasion to understand its economic, social and ethical consequences is crucial, according to the young statistician. “The issue is critical for many governments, as the payment or non-payment of taxes has a very strong impact on government revenues. When tax revenues decrease, the government sector has to find alternative sources of income to ensure public services and to maintain and develop infrastructure, or to abandon the provision of certain services," explained the young statistician.
The results of Mikk's analysis indicate that larger companies are less likely to evade labor taxes, the probability of evasion is highest in one-man companies. At the same time, the construction sector stands out due to its higher avoidance of labour taxes, making up as much as 77% of all companies in the construction sector in 2022, according to the analysis, and providing employment to 36% of the construction sector workforce. Therefore, from the point of view of avoiding labor taxes, more attention must be paid to the construction sector as a highly competitive and cash-intensive sector. "In addition, I found that several ratios indicate a higher probability that the company is not quite honest in reporting and paying labour taxes," stated Mikk.
Mikk considers winning the Pullerits prize as a confirmation that the researched topic is relevant. "The goal of my master's thesis was ambitious and required a large investment of time, but since the topic spoke to me personally, the writing itself was very exciting and smooth," said Mikk.
Statistics Estonia has awarded the Albert Pullerits Young Statistician Award for the 14th time and recognises a young student whose master's or bachelor's thesis applies or develops a statistical method. According to Kadri Rootalu, data scientist of the experimental statistics team of the Statistics Estonia, the chairman of the Pullerits prize evaluation committee, seven exciting theses were submitted to the competition this year, including several strong and very meaningful ones. "When choosing the winner, we considered four very strong papers, which in addition to economic analysis also touched on the fields of healthcare and statistical theory and in many ways complemented each other," said Rootalu.
The jury rated Mikk's work as worthy of the Young Statistician Award, as it had a good balance of theoretical, behavioural and statistical aspects. The author was able to connect previous studies and patterns of tax behaviour visible in real life and to operationalize them using suitable data sources. In doing so, various data sources were used and combined, and the pros and cons of the used data were delved into with outstanding thoroughness. The work stood out among others with the good applicability of the results.
The aim of Mikk’s thesis was to analyse the relationship between the financial and non-financial indicators of various companies and the probability of evasion of labour taxes.
The choice of the topic is motivated by Mikk's personal interest in the shadow economy. Researching tax evasion to understand its economic, social and ethical consequences is crucial, according to the young statistician. “The issue is critical for many governments, as the payment or non-payment of taxes has a very strong impact on government revenues. When tax revenues decrease, the government sector has to find alternative sources of income to ensure public services and to maintain and develop infrastructure, or to abandon the provision of certain services," explained the young statistician.
The results of Mikk's analysis indicate that larger companies are less likely to evade labor taxes, the probability of evasion is highest in one-man companies. At the same time, the construction sector stands out due to its higher avoidance of labour taxes, making up as much as 77% of all companies in the construction sector in 2022, according to the analysis, and providing employment to 36% of the construction sector workforce. Therefore, from the point of view of avoiding labor taxes, more attention must be paid to the construction sector as a highly competitive and cash-intensive sector. "In addition, I found that several ratios indicate a higher probability that the company is not quite honest in reporting and paying labour taxes," stated Mikk.
Mikk considers winning the Pullerits prize as a confirmation that the researched topic is relevant. "The goal of my master's thesis was ambitious and required a large investment of time, but since the topic spoke to me personally, the writing itself was very exciting and smooth," said Mikk.
Statistics Estonia has awarded the Albert Pullerits Young Statistician Award for the 14th time and recognises a young student whose master's or bachelor's thesis applies or develops a statistical method. According to Kadri Rootalu, data scientist of the experimental statistics team of the Statistics Estonia, the chairman of the Pullerits prize evaluation committee, seven exciting theses were submitted to the competition this year, including several strong and very meaningful ones. "When choosing the winner, we considered four very strong papers, which in addition to economic analysis also touched on the fields of healthcare and statistical theory and in many ways complemented each other," said Rootalu.
The jury rated Mikk's work as worthy of the Young Statistician Award, as it had a good balance of theoretical, behavioural and statistical aspects. The author was able to connect previous studies and patterns of tax behaviour visible in real life and to operationalize them using suitable data sources. In doing so, various data sources were used and combined, and the pros and cons of the used data were delved into with outstanding thoroughness. The work stood out among others with the good applicability of the results.
The winning work is available on the website of the Statistics Estonia. Karsten Staehr TalTech professor of economics at, supervised the master's thesis.
Albert Pullerits was the first head of the Central Statistical Office of Estonia established in 1921 and the founder of the Estonian statistical system. The award for a young statistician named Albert Pullerits was first awarded by the Statistics Estonia in 2011 on the occasion of the 90th anniversary of Estonian statistics. The prize pool of the 2024 Pullerits award is 1,000 euros.