Tallinna Tehnikaülikool

Olete oodatud Majandusanalüüsi ja rahanduse instituudi teadusseminarile "Understanding Growth-at-Risk: A Markov Switching Approach".

Seminar toimub kolmapäeval 13. novembril kell 16:00 - 17:00 ruumis SOC-413 ja MS Teamsi veebikeskkonnas (link).

Ettekande teeb: Francesca Loria (Federal Reserve Board ja Centre for Economic Policy Research)

Artikli pealkiri: Understanding Growth-at-Risk: A Markov Switching Approach
Autorid: Dario Caldara - Federal Reserve Board, Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia - Federal Reserve Board, Pablo Cuba-Borda - Federal Reserve Board, Francesca Loria - Federal Reserve Board

Lühikokkuvõte:

Both financial and macroeconomic conditions matter for downside risks to the economic outlook. In this paper, we show that the deterioration of the financial and real sides dramatically increase the probability of tail risks of large negative growth over the next year. We propose a real-time measure of financial conditions and economic activity for the United States, and use these measures to construct conditional quantiles and predictive distributions of average GDP growth over the next 12 months. We find that periods of high macro and financial distress, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, are associated with a low average future growth, high uncertainty, and risks tilted to the downside. This methodology is a powerful tool to assess the risk of tail events, such as recessions, and to evaluate the likelihood of point forecasts.

Tallinna Tehnikaülikooli Majandusanalüüsi ja rahanduse instituudi avatud teadusseminarid toimuvad tavaliselt kuu teisel ja neljandal kolmapäeval nii kohapealse kui online osalemisvõimalusega, kui ei ole teatatud teisiti. Ettekanne kestab u 45 minutit, millele järgneb veerand tundi arutelu. Seminar toimub inglise keeles. Ettekande aluseks olev artikkel on üldjuhul kättesaadav seminaril kohapeal. Küsimuste korral võib pöörduda seminaride koordinaatori Natalia Levenko poole: natalia.levenko@taltech.ee.